Reconciliation: the 16% / 25% / 48% AI-prevalence gap is largely definitional — different keyword samples, "tracked queries" vs all queries, niche / long-tail inclusion

Claim: The 16% / 25% / 48% gap across Pew, Conductor / Semrush, and BrightEdge is largely definitional — different keyword samples, "tracked queries" vs all queries, inclusion of niche / long-tail terms.

Source: Synthesis of Pew Research Center — 18% of Google searches in March 2025 produced an AI summary (68,879 searches across 900 US adults; independent anchor), Semrush — AI Overview prevalence on 10M+ keywords rose 6.49% (Jan 2025) → peak ~24.61% (Jul 2025) → ~15.69% (Nov 2025), BrightEdge — ~48% of tracked queries showed an AI Overview by Feb–Mar 2026, up from ~31% a year earlier, Conductor (21.9M queries) — AI Overview share at 25.11%, up from 13.14% in March 2025.

Confidence: Industry-consensus on direction (rising); range on level.

Why this matters for Candid: The reconciliation is itself the finding worth citing. Vendor-incentive flagging discipline: the direction (rising) is consistent across every source; cite the level as a range anchored to Pew's independent 18% for March 2025. See R6 — Cite Pew as the AI-prevalence anchor; cite vendor trackers (Semrush / BrightEdge / Conductor) as a range; never cite a single vendor as the level.