GAP — AI Overview prevalence has no single authoritative number; independent (Pew 18% Mar 2025) vs vendor (16–48%, 2025–26) figures diverge by definition and sample

Gap: AI Overview prevalence has no single authoritative number — independent (Pew 18%, Mar 2025) and vendor (16–48%, 2025–26) figures diverge by definition and sample. Always cite as a rising range, not a point estimate.

Source: Synthesis of Pew Research Center — 18% of Google searches in March 2025 produced an AI summary (68,879 searches across 900 US adults; independent anchor), Semrush — AI Overview prevalence on 10M+ keywords rose 6.49% (Jan 2025) → peak ~24.61% (Jul 2025) → ~15.69% (Nov 2025), BrightEdge — ~48% of tracked queries showed an AI Overview by Feb–Mar 2026, up from ~31% a year earlier, Conductor (21.9M queries) — AI Overview share at 25.11%, up from 13.14% in March 2025, Reconciliation: the 16% / 25% / 48% AI-prevalence gap is largely definitional — different keyword samples, "tracked queries" vs all queries, niche / long-tail inclusion.

Confidence: Verified (gap-in-evidence).

Why this matters for Candid: Editorial-discipline rule for the brief. Pair with R6 — Cite Pew as the AI-prevalence anchor; cite vendor trackers (Semrush / BrightEdge / Conductor) as a range; never cite a single vendor as the level.