Semrush — AI Overview prevalence on 10M+ keywords rose 6.49% (Jan 2025) → peak ~24.61% (Jul 2025) → ~15.69% (Nov 2025)

Summary

Claim: Semrush, tracking 10M+ keywords, found AI Overview prevalence rose from 6.49% (Jan 2025) to a peak of ~24.61% (Jul 2025), settling at ~15.69% by Nov 2025.

Source: https://semrush.com/blog/semrush-ai-overviews-study — 2025/26.

Confidence: Single-source (vendor — SEO platform with incentive to show large numbers).

Caveat: Semrush's keyword sample is not the same population as Pew's real-user search log. Use as part of the vendor range, not as an independent confirmation of Pew's 18%.

Why this matters for Candid: Worth citing for the time-series shape (peaked mid-2025, then settled) — useful context against the simpler "it's growing forever" narrative.