{"id":1810,"slug":"reconciliation-aio-prevalence-pew-vs-vendor-trackers-definitional-gap","title":"Reconciliation: the 16% / 25% / 48% AI-prevalence gap is largely definitional — different keyword samples, \"tracked queries\" vs all queries, niche / long-tail inclusion","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["measurement","editorial-discipline","ai-overview-prevalence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** The **16% / 25% / 48%** gap across Pew, Conductor / Semrush, and BrightEdge is **largely definitional** — different keyword samples, \"tracked queries\" vs all queries, inclusion of niche / long-tail terms.\n\n**Source:** Synthesis of [[pew-18-percent-google-searches-ai-summary-march-2025]], [[semrush-aio-prevalence-6-49-24-61-15-69-2025]], [[brightedge-48-percent-tracked-queries-feb-2026]], [[conductor-aio-25-11-percent-2026]].\n\n**Confidence:** Industry-consensus on direction (rising); range on level.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** The reconciliation is itself the finding worth citing. Vendor-incentive flagging discipline: the *direction* (rising) is consistent across every source; cite the *level* as a range anchored to Pew's independent 18% for March 2025. See [[rule-cite-pew-as-anchor-vendor-trackers-as-range]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"pew-18-percent-google-searches-ai-summary-march-2025","title":"Pew Research Center — 18% of Google searches in March 2025 produced an AI summary (68,879 searches across 900 US adults; independent anchor)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"semrush-aio-prevalence-6-49-24-61-15-69-2025","title":"Semrush — AI Overview prevalence on 10M+ keywords rose 6.49% (Jan 2025) → peak ~24.61% (Jul 2025) → ~15.69% (Nov 2025)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"brightedge-48-percent-tracked-queries-feb-2026","title":"BrightEdge — ~48% of tracked queries showed an AI Overview by Feb–Mar 2026, up from ~31% a year earlier","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"conductor-aio-25-11-percent-2026","title":"Conductor (21.9M queries) — AI Overview share at 25.11%, up from 13.14% in March 2025","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-website-as-working-surface-june-2026","title":"Research brief: the website as a working surface of the business — four capabilities, AI-citation decoupling, freshness as a real signal (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"gap-no-single-authoritative-aio-prevalence-number","title":"GAP — AI Overview prevalence has no single authoritative number; independent (Pew 18% Mar 2025) vs vendor (16–48%, 2025–26) figures diverge by definition and sample","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-cite-pew-as-anchor-vendor-trackers-as-range","title":"R6 — Cite Pew as the AI-prevalence anchor; cite vendor trackers (Semrush / BrightEdge / Conductor) as a range; never cite a single vendor as the level","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.668Z","updated_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.668Z"}