Topic: `entrepreneurial-overconfidence`

15 entries tagged entrepreneurial-overconfidence.

Rules (2)

rule R6 — In easy-looking markets, override owner optimism with observed counts
rule R3 — Where comparison is unavoidable, use a concrete NAMED competitor target

Reference entries (13)

reference Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)
reference Confidence does not reliably track accuracy for subjective judgments
reference Lichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips 1977 — the hard-easy effect
reference CANNOT — "How do you compare to your competitors?" (abstract → max overplacement)
reference Kruger & Dunning 1999 — low performers cannot self-assess skill (with caveats)
reference The concrete-target moderation — the design lever against overplacement
reference Svenson 1981 — 93% of US drivers rated themselves above the median for skill
reference Busenitz & Barney 1997 — entrepreneurs more overconfident than corporate managers
reference Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg 1988 — 81% of entrepreneurs see odds 7/10+; 33% see 10/10
reference Moore & Cain 2007 — overplacement is GREATEST on easy tasks/markets
reference Cain, Moore & Haran 2015 — OVERPLACEMENT (not absolute confidence) drives entry; easy markets pull entrants in
reference Camerer & Lovallo 1999 — excess entry driven by overconfidence about RELATIVE skill
reference Moore & Healy 2008 — the three forms of overconfidence (estimate / place / precision)