Moore & Healy 2008 — the three forms of overconfidence (estimate / place / precision)

Claim: Moore & Healy (2008, Psychological Review, "The Trouble with Overconfidence") distinguish three forms:

1. Overestimation — of one's absolute performance.
2. Overplacement — belief one is better than others.
3. Overprecision — excessive certainty in one's estimates.

Critically: on EASY tasks people UNDERestimate absolute performance but OVERPLACE (believe they are better than others); on HARD tasks the reverse.

Source: Moore & Healy 2008, Psychological Review. Foundational primary source.

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: Owners in easy-looking markets (e.g., a low-CPC local vertical with no entrenched competitors) will OVERPLACE — feel they out-compete rivals — even when their absolute performance is mediocre. The widget must override owner relative-position self-ratings with observed counts of competitors and reviews. See Moore & Cain 2007 — overplacement is GREATEST on easy tasks/markets.