Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg 1988 — 81% of entrepreneurs see odds 7/10+; 33% see 10/10

Claim: Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg (1988, Journal of Business Venturing 3:97-108) surveyed 2,994 entrepreneurs and found:

• "They perceived their prospects as very favorable, with 81% seeing odds of 7 out of 10 or better and a remarkable 33% seeing odds of success of 10 out of 10."
• They rated their own odds higher "than other new business owners with similar ideas."
• Notably: "those who were poorly prepared seemed just as optimistic as those who were well prepared" — even though roughly half or more of new firms do not survive their first several years.

Source: Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg 1988 JBV. Primary survey, n=2,994.

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: This is not a small effect. The bias magnitude is large enough that an unweighted self-rating widget would systematically misclassify owners. Output tiers, not scores, and lean on observation (R5 — Output tiers, not precise scores).