Cain, Moore & Haran 2015 — OVERPLACEMENT (not absolute confidence) drives entry; easy markets pull entrants in

Claim: Cain, Moore & Haran (2015, Strategic Management Journal, "Making sense of overconfidence in market entry") reconciled the entry-overconfidence puzzle: "entry into different markets is not driven by confidence in one's own absolute skill, but by confidence in one's skill relative to that of others." People choose markets they perceive as easy, and easy markets maximize overplacement.

Source: Cain, Moore & Haran 2015, SMJ. Primary.

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: This is the keystone finding for the widget. When the user is in a perceived-easy vertical (low CPC, sparse SERP, weak-looking competitors), their self-assessment of competitive position is MOST inflated — and the widget must lean hardest on observed counts. See R6 — In easy-looking markets, override owner optimism with observed counts.