Shefrin & Statman 1985 (JoF) — disposition effect; narrow-framing / mental accounting of each vendor as separate account
Claim: Shefrin and Statman (1985) identified the disposition effect and proposed four contributing mechanisms: prospect-theory value function over realized gains and losses; mental accounting tracking each position separately; regret avoidance; self-control failure.
Source: Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (1985). "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long." Journal of Finance 40(3): 777–790.
Confidence: Verified.
For Candid — narrow framing applied to vendor history: Each prior vendor relationship is booked as a separate mental account. A closed-out loss generates an active aversion to opening a new account in the same category.
In expected-value terms, a previous bad marketing-vendor experience contains zero diagnostic information about a new vendor of different size, methodology, and contract structure. The GC's behaviour is not expected-value rational. It is rational under prospect theory's value function over realized losses, combined with [[rozin-royzman-2001-negativity-dominance]] and the competence-attribution dynamics of [[kim-ferrin-cooper-dirks-2004-competence-vs-integrity-trust-repair]]. The GC is not being unreasonable — he is applying a documented baseline cognitive pattern to a category in which he has accumulated negative-balance accounts.
Related
- reference Research brief: risk aversion, loss aversion, and post-failure decision patterns in GC and trades-business decision-makers (May 2026)
- reference Rozin & Royzman 2001 (PSPR) — negativity bias / negativity dominance; bad weighs more than the algebraic sum of equivalent goods
- reference Kim, Ferrin, Cooper, Dirks 2004 (JAP) — competence violations repair via apology; integrity violations repair via denial; opposite mechanisms
Referenced by (3)
- reference Tversky & Kahneman 1973 (Cognitive Psychology) — availability heuristic; why "once burned" is NOT just recency bias relates-to
- reference Pitch categories pre-emptively defeated by the GC cognitive profile — seven types this audience rejects before evaluating on merits depends-on
- rule R2 — Engineer explicit kill criteria into every multi-month engagement; date + metric in writing; converts open-ended commitment to bounded prospect depends-on