US Intelligence Community: high/moderate/low confidence taxonomy (ICD 203/206, 2007 NIE Iran convention)

Claim: The US Intelligence Community uses a three-tier confidence taxonomy (codified in Intelligence Community Directives 203 and 206, used in National Intelligence Estimates since at least the 2007 NIE Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities):

• High confidence: high-quality information, solid judgment
• Moderate confidence: "credibly sourced and plausible but not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence"
• Low confidence: credibility uncertain, source information scant or fragmented

Source: NPR summarizing 2007 NIE convention; Harvard Belfer Center analysis; ICD 203/206.

Confidence: Verified (institutional documentation, long-standing practice).

The Tetlock companion: Tetlock's superforecasters (Good Judgment Project) demonstrate empirically that calibrated probability statements with frequent small updates beat categorical assertions. The 10 commandments for aspiring superforecasters (Tetlock & Gardner, Superforecasting, 2015) translate directly into editorial practice: focus on questions where evidence pays off, distinguish probability from confidence, update incrementally.

The CIS adaptation: CIS Center for Internet Security adopts the same logic for cyber threat intelligence. "Moderate Confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and interpreted to be plausible but is not of sufficient quality or corroboration..."

Used as the source pattern for CANDID REFERENCE: 7-label confidence taxonomy — Verified / Industry-consensus / Single-source / Estimated / Author's view / Contested / Stale — Candid's 7-label adaptation extends this three-tier base with Estimated / Author's view / Contested / Stale, which the IC framework doesn't need but business writing does.