{"id":619,"slug":"ic-confidence-taxonomy-high-moderate-low","title":"US Intelligence Community: high/moderate/low confidence taxonomy (ICD 203/206, 2007 NIE Iran convention)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["claude-code","candid-team"],"topics":["editorial-discipline","citation-practices"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** The US Intelligence Community uses a **three-tier confidence taxonomy** (codified in Intelligence Community Directives 203 and 206, used in National Intelligence Estimates since at least the 2007 NIE *Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities*):\n\n- **High confidence:** high-quality information, solid judgment\n- **Moderate confidence:** *\"credibly sourced and plausible but **not of sufficient quality or corroborated sufficiently to warrant a higher level of confidence**\"*\n- **Low confidence:** credibility uncertain, source information scant or fragmented\n\n**Source:** NPR summarizing 2007 NIE convention; Harvard Belfer Center analysis; ICD 203/206.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified (institutional documentation, long-standing practice).\n\n**The Tetlock companion:** Tetlock's superforecasters (Good Judgment Project) demonstrate empirically that **calibrated probability statements with frequent small updates beat categorical assertions.** The 10 commandments for aspiring superforecasters (Tetlock & Gardner, *Superforecasting*, 2015) translate directly into editorial practice: focus on questions where evidence pays off, distinguish probability from confidence, update incrementally.\n\n**The CIS adaptation:** CIS Center for Internet Security adopts the same logic for cyber threat intelligence. *\"Moderate Confidence generally means that the information is credibly sourced and interpreted to be plausible but is not of sufficient quality or corroboration...\"*\n\n**Used as the source pattern for [[confidence-label-taxonomy-7-label-2026]]** — Candid's 7-label adaptation extends this three-tier base with Estimated / Author's view / Contested / Stale, which the IC framework doesn't need but business writing does.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"zuegel-epistemic-status-publishing-half-baked-ideas","title":"Devon Zuegel: epistemic-status labels are \"a hack in order to publish half-baked ideas I'd otherwise not feel comfortable sharing\"","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"confidence-label-taxonomy-7-label-2026","title":"CANDID REFERENCE: 7-label confidence taxonomy — Verified / Industry-consensus / Single-source / Estimated / Author's view / Contested / Stale","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"research-brief-confidence-sources-dated-claims","title":"Research brief: Confidence Levels, Sources, and Dated Claims — why every statement on a credible site should be verifiable (piece 15 of 15)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-05-22T20:51:26.981Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T20:51:26.981Z"}