Google neural-net (Think with Google, 2018): mobile load 1→3s = +32% bounce probability; 1→5s = +90%; 1→10s = +123%

Claim: Google's neural-net analysis of 11 million mobile landing pages (Think with Google, 2018, 213 countries, 90% prediction accuracy):

• Mobile load 1s → 3s: +32% bounce probability.
• Mobile load 1s → 5s: +90% bounce probability.
• Mobile load 1s → 10s: +123% bounce probability.

Confidence: High for the general curve, medium for exact numbers (baselines have shifted since 2018).

Source: Think with Google, Mobile Page Speed Benchmarks, 2018.

Use: the cleanest single non-vendor "bounce vs. load time" curve in literature. Quote with the year so the audience knows it's directionally honest, not a 2026 number.