{"id":670,"slug":"google-neural-net-bounce-mobile-2018","title":"Google neural-net (Think with Google, 2018): mobile load 1→3s = +32% bounce probability; 1→5s = +90%; 1→10s = +123%","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["measurement","conversion-rate"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Google's neural-net analysis of 11 million mobile landing pages (Think with Google, 2018, 213 countries, 90% prediction accuracy):\n\n- Mobile load 1s → 3s: +32% bounce probability.\n- Mobile load 1s → 5s: +90% bounce probability.\n- Mobile load 1s → 10s: +123% bounce probability.\n\n**Confidence:** High for the general curve, medium for exact numbers (baselines have shifted since 2018).\n\n**Source:** *Think with Google, Mobile Page Speed Benchmarks*, 2018.\n\n**Use:** the cleanest single non-vendor \"bounce vs. load time\" curve in literature. Quote with the year so the audience knows it's directionally honest, not a 2026 number.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-05-22T21:24:18.365Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T21:24:18.365Z"}