{"id":1991,"slug":"cain-moore-haran-2015-overplacement-drives-entry","title":"Cain, Moore & Haran 2015 — OVERPLACEMENT (not absolute confidence) drives entry; easy markets pull entrants in","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Cain, Moore & Haran (2015, *Strategic Management Journal*, \"Making sense of overconfidence in market entry\") reconciled the entry-overconfidence puzzle: \"entry into different markets is **not driven by confidence in one's own absolute skill**, but by **confidence in one's skill relative to that of others**.\" People choose markets they perceive as **easy**, and easy markets maximize overplacement.\n\n**Source:** Cain, Moore & Haran 2015, SMJ. Primary.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** This is the keystone finding for the widget. When the user is in a perceived-easy vertical (low CPC, sparse SERP, weak-looking competitors), their self-assessment of competitive position is MOST inflated — and the widget must lean hardest on observed counts. See [[rule-r6-easy-market-override-with-counts]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"camerer-lovallo-1999-excess-entry","title":"Camerer & Lovallo 1999 — excess entry driven by overconfidence about RELATIVE skill","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-r6-easy-market-override-with-counts","title":"R6 — In easy-looking markets, override owner optimism with observed counts","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"easy-market-overplacement-asymmetry-moore-cain-2007","title":"Moore & Cain 2007 — overplacement is GREATEST on easy tasks/markets","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.886Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.886Z"}