{"id":1807,"slug":"semrush-aio-prevalence-6-49-24-61-15-69-2025","title":"Semrush — AI Overview prevalence on 10M+ keywords rose 6.49% (Jan 2025) → peak ~24.61% (Jul 2025) → ~15.69% (Nov 2025)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["measurement","ai-overview-prevalence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Semrush, tracking **10M+ keywords**, found AI Overview prevalence rose from **6.49% (Jan 2025)** to a peak of **~24.61% (Jul 2025)**, settling at **~15.69% by Nov 2025**.\n\n**Source:** https://semrush.com/blog/semrush-ai-overviews-study — 2025/26.\n\n**Confidence:** Single-source (vendor — SEO platform with incentive to show large numbers).\n\n**Caveat:** Semrush's keyword sample is not the same population as Pew's real-user search log. Use as part of the vendor range, not as an independent confirmation of Pew's 18%.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Worth citing for the time-series shape (peaked mid-2025, then settled) — useful context against the simpler \"it's growing forever\" narrative.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"pew-18-percent-google-searches-ai-summary-march-2025","title":"Pew Research Center — 18% of Google searches in March 2025 produced an AI summary (68,879 searches across 900 US adults; independent anchor)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-website-as-working-surface-june-2026","title":"Research brief: the website as a working surface of the business — four capabilities, AI-citation decoupling, freshness as a real signal (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"reconciliation-aio-prevalence-pew-vs-vendor-trackers-definitional-gap","title":"Reconciliation: the 16% / 25% / 48% AI-prevalence gap is largely definitional — different keyword samples, \"tracked queries\" vs all queries, niche / long-tail inclusion","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-cite-pew-as-anchor-vendor-trackers-as-range","title":"R6 — Cite Pew as the AI-prevalence anchor; cite vendor trackers (Semrush / BrightEdge / Conductor) as a range; never cite a single vendor as the level","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.659Z","updated_at":"2026-06-21T13:17:17.659Z"}