R1 — Price and scope in affordable-loss terms, not expected-return terms; headline = "maximum you can lose," not "projected upside"
Created 2026-05-25
Rule: Every Candid proposal makes the bounded exposure explicit before the projected outcome. The headline number is "maximum you can lose," not "projected upside." Pricing structure surfaces the affordable-loss number, not the expected-NPV calculation.
Why: Expert entrepreneurs do not maximize expected return ([[sarasvathy-effectuation-bird-in-hand-affordable-loss]]). They set a bounded downside and proceed only if downside is acceptable. The loss-domain value function ([[kahneman-tversky-prospect-theory-loss-aversion-2to1]], [[brown-imai-vieider-camerer-2024-meta-analysis-lambda-1955]]) makes the bounded-loss number the salient anchor whether we surface it or not — surfacing it brings the framing under our control.
How to apply:
- Proposal first line: "Maximum exposure over the engagement: $X."
- Second: "Kill points at month 2 and month 4 — no further obligation if metrics aren't hit."
- Third: "Projected outcome: [the probable upside]." Never lead with the third item. The first two engage the decision rule the buyer is actually using.
Depends on
- reference Sarasvathy effectuation (2001, 2008) — expert entrepreneurs decide on affordable loss + bird-in-hand, NOT on expected value
- reference Brown, Imai, Vieider, Camerer (JEL 2024) — meta-analysis of 607 loss-aversion estimates; mean λ = 1.955, CI [1.820, 2.102]
- reference Kahneman & Tversky prospect theory (Econometrica 1979; JRU 1992) — loss aversion ratio ~2:1; fourfold pattern; certainty effect