Reference entries (11)
- reference Research gaps and source caveats — risk-aversion brief May 2026
- reference Bird-in-hand sales architecture — start from GC's existing assets, propose bounded incremental improvements; NOT strategic reinvention
- reference The "my nephew can build it" pattern — loss-aversion on the invoice + overconfidence on in-house execution as mechanistically linked
- reference Busenitz & Barney 1997 (JBV) — entrepreneurs score significantly higher than corporate managers on overconfidence and representativeness
- reference Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg 1988 (JBV) — 2,994 entrepreneurs; 81% rated odds of success 7+/10; 33% rated 10/10 vs ~50% 5-year base-rate failure
- reference Camerer & Lovallo 1999 (AER) — "reference-group neglect"; entrants over-enter when ranking depends on skill, lose money in most rounds
- reference Read, Song, Smit 2009 (JBV) — meta-analysis of effectuation; 9,897 new ventures; 3 of 5 principles positively associated with performance
- reference Sarasvathy effectuation (2001, 2008) — expert entrepreneurs decide on affordable loss + bird-in-hand, NOT on expected value
- reference Stewart & Roth 2001 (JAP) — entrepreneurs higher risk propensity than managers; effect concentrated in growth-oriented founders, not lifestyle owner-operators
- reference Knight 1921 — risk (known probabilities) vs uncertainty (unknown distributions); construction operates in uncertainty regime
- reference Research brief: risk aversion, loss aversion, and post-failure decision patterns in GC and trades-business decision-makers (May 2026)