Read, Song, Smit 2009 (JBV) — meta-analysis of effectuation; 9,897 new ventures; 3 of 5 principles positively associated with performance

Claim: Read, Song, and Smit (2009) meta-analyzed articles in the Journal of Business Venturing, summarizing data on 9,897 new ventures, and found three of the five effectuation principles positively associated with new-venture performance. The bird-in-hand and affordable-loss principles ([[sarasvathy-effectuation-bird-in-hand-affordable-loss]]) are among those with empirical support.

Source: Read, S., Song, M., & Smit, W. (2009). "A meta-analytic review of effectuation and venture performance." Journal of Business Venturing 24(6): 573–587.

Confidence: Industry-consensus.

For Candid: Effectuation is not just a descriptive account of how expert entrepreneurs think — it is associated with better outcomes. Candid pitches aligned with effectuation logic are not just psychologically congruent; they propose engagement architectures the buyer has empirical reason to trust.