{"id":1094,"slug":"read-song-smit-2009-effectuation-meta-analysis-9897-ventures","title":"Read, Song, Smit 2009 (JBV) — meta-analysis of effectuation; 9,897 new ventures; 3 of 5 principles positively associated with performance","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneur-cognition"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Read, Song, and Smit (2009) meta-analyzed articles in the *Journal of Business Venturing*, summarizing data on **9,897 new ventures**, and found three of the five effectuation principles positively associated with new-venture performance. The bird-in-hand and affordable-loss principles ([[sarasvathy-effectuation-bird-in-hand-affordable-loss]]) are among those with empirical support.\n\n**Source:** Read, S., Song, M., & Smit, W. (2009). \"A meta-analytic review of effectuation and venture performance.\" *Journal of Business Venturing* 24(6): 573–587.\n\n**Confidence:** Industry-consensus.\n\n**For Candid:** Effectuation is not just a descriptive account of how expert entrepreneurs *think* — it is associated with *better outcomes*. Candid pitches aligned with effectuation logic are not just psychologically congruent; they propose engagement architectures the buyer has empirical reason to trust.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-risk-aversion-post-failure-may-2026","title":"Research brief: risk aversion, loss aversion, and post-failure decision patterns in GC and trades-business decision-makers (May 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"sarasvathy-effectuation-bird-in-hand-affordable-loss","title":"Sarasvathy effectuation (2001, 2008) — expert entrepreneurs decide on affordable loss + bird-in-hand, NOT on expected value","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-05-25T13:13:30.976Z","updated_at":"2026-05-25T13:13:30.976Z"}