Klein, Calderwood & Clinton-Cirocco (1985, ARI TR-85-46-12) — Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground; origin of RPD model

Claim: Gary Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) model originates in:

• Klein, G. A., Calderwood, R. & Clinton-Cirocco, A. "Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground." U.S. Army Research Institute Technical Report TR-85-46-12 (1985); reissued as DTIC AD-A199492 (1988).

The study interviewed 26 experienced fireground commanders averaging 23 years of service across 156 critical decision points. It found that experts under time pressure do not enumerate alternatives — they recognize a situation as a known type and act on the first workable course of action.

The study was republished with a postscript in the Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making (2010). Klein's Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions (MIT Press, 1998) synthesizes the broader research program.

Confidence: Verified (foundational primary literature).

For Candid: A GC with 20 years of fieldwork has trained pattern recognition for project feasibility, subcontractor reliability, material quality, and client risk — exactly the cognitive profile RPD describes. When a marketing pitch arrives framed as "data-driven decision-making", it is asking the GC to suspend the cognitive mode that has produced his results to date in favor of an analytical mode he has rarely needed. This is not stubbornness; it is calibrated trust in a decision style that has worked. Applied conclusion: [[gc-pattern-matching-not-roi-spreadsheets]].

Related: [[klein-kahneman-2009-conditions-for-intuitive-expertise]] specifies when intuition of this kind is reliable.