{"id":1061,"slug":"klein-rpd-1985-fireground-naturalistic-decision-making","title":"Klein, Calderwood & Clinton-Cirocco (1985, ARI TR-85-46-12) — Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground; origin of RPD model","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["psychology-aversion","naturalistic-decision-making"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Gary Klein's **recognition-primed decision (RPD)** model originates in:\n\n- Klein, G. A., Calderwood, R. & Clinton-Cirocco, A. \"Rapid Decision Making on the Fire Ground.\" U.S. Army Research Institute Technical Report TR-85-46-12 (1985); reissued as DTIC AD-A199492 (1988).\n\nThe study interviewed **26 experienced fireground commanders averaging 23 years of service across 156 critical decision points**. It found that experts under time pressure do not enumerate alternatives — they **recognize** a situation as a known type and act on the first workable course of action.\n\nThe study was republished with a postscript in the *Journal of Cognitive Engineering and Decision Making* (2010). Klein's *Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions* (MIT Press, 1998) synthesizes the broader research program.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified (foundational primary literature).\n\n**For Candid:** A GC with 20 years of fieldwork has trained pattern recognition for project feasibility, subcontractor reliability, material quality, and client risk — exactly the cognitive profile RPD describes. When a marketing pitch arrives framed as **\"data-driven decision-making\"**, it is asking the GC to suspend the cognitive mode that has produced his results to date in favor of an analytical mode he has rarely needed. This is not stubbornness; it is calibrated trust in a decision style that has worked. Applied conclusion: [[gc-pattern-matching-not-roi-spreadsheets]].\n\n**Related:** [[klein-kahneman-2009-conditions-for-intuitive-expertise]] specifies when intuition of this kind is reliable.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-psychology-gc-marketing-aversion-may-2026","title":"Research brief: the psychology of marketing aversion among general contractor owners (May 2026 foundation)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"rule-lead-with-work-not-strategy-for-gc-marketing","title":"Rule: lead with the work, not the strategy, when selling to a GC owner","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"klein-kahneman-2009-conditions-for-intuitive-expertise","title":"Klein & Kahneman (American Psychologist 2009) — Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: high-validity environment + prolonged practice with rapid feedback","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"gc-pattern-matching-not-roi-spreadsheets","title":"GC cognitive default is pattern-matched stories, not ROI spreadsheets — implication for pitch structure","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-05-24T23:24:06.315Z","updated_at":"2026-05-24T23:24:06.315Z"}