Klein & Kahneman (American Psychologist 2009) — Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: high-validity environment + prolonged practice with rapid feedback

Claim: Kahneman, D. & Klein, G. "Conditions for Intuitive Expertise: A Failure to Disagree." American Psychologist 64(6): 515–526 (2009). The paper synthesizes 50 years of work from two opposed camps (heuristics-and-biases vs naturalistic decision-making) and specifies the two conditions under which expert intuition is reliable:

1. High-validity environment — the environment provides stable, learnable cues that correlate with outcomes.
2. Prolonged practice with rapid feedback — the expert has had opportunity to learn from outcomes.

Confidence: Verified (cross-camp consensus paper).

For Candid: Construction satisfies both conditions for an experienced GC. The cues — soil conditions, framing tolerances, sub reliability, client behaviour pre-contract — are stable and learnable; feedback (the project finishes, the client pays, the warranty claim does or doesn't materialize) is rapid by white-collar professional-services standards. By the Klein–Kahneman framework, the GC's pattern-recognition intuition is genuinely reliable in his domain — the marketing pitch cannot validly dismiss it as "just gut feel." It can, however, point out that the marketing domain itself is a low-validity environment for the GC (he has not had repeat exposure with rapid feedback to marketing decisions) and offer to be the missing reliable feedback loop.

Operationalizes: [[gc-pattern-matching-not-roi-spreadsheets]].