{"id":1989,"slug":"moore-healy-2008-overconfidence-taxonomy","title":"Moore & Healy 2008 — the three forms of overconfidence (estimate / place / precision)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Moore & Healy (2008, *Psychological Review*, \"The Trouble with Overconfidence\") distinguish three forms:\n\n1. **Overestimation** — of one's absolute performance.\n2. **Overplacement** — belief one is better than others.\n3. **Overprecision** — excessive certainty in one's estimates.\n\nCritically: **on EASY tasks people UNDERestimate absolute performance but OVERPLACE** (believe they are better than others); on HARD tasks the reverse.\n\n**Source:** Moore & Healy 2008, *Psychological Review*. Foundational primary source.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Owners in easy-looking markets (e.g., a low-CPC local vertical with no entrenched competitors) will OVERPLACE — feel they out-compete rivals — even when their absolute performance is mediocre. The widget must override owner relative-position self-ratings with observed counts of competitors and reviews. See [[easy-market-overplacement-asymmetry-moore-cain-2007]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"lichtenstein-1977-hard-easy-effect","title":"Lichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips 1977 — the hard-easy effect","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.869Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.869Z"}