Cooper, Woo, Dunkelberg 1988 (JBV) — 2,994 entrepreneurs; 81% rated odds of success 7+/10; 33% rated 10/10 vs ~50% 5-year base-rate failure

Claim: Cooper, Woo, and Dunkelberg (1988) surveyed 2,994 entrepreneurs who had recently opened businesses (NFIB membership). The findings:

• 81% rated their odds of success at 7/10 or better.
• 33% rated their odds at 10/10 — a perfect certainty of success.

Base rate: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Business Employment Dynamics indicates approximately 49.8% of all private-sector businesses fail within five years, with construction "consistently ranking among the lowest" industries for establishment survival rates.

Source: Cooper, A. C., Woo, C. Y., & Dunkelberg, W. C. (1988). "Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success." Journal of Business Venturing 3(2): 97–108. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/0883902688900201

Confidence: Verified.

For Candid: The magnitude of the overconfidence gap is the operative number. A third of new-business owners think their odds are 100%. Construction has worse-than-average survival. The owner-operator GC across the desk is operating with a baseline self-assessment at least 30 percentage points above the base rate — and that same overconfidence transfers cleanly to the "I can build this in-house" judgment.