Rule: quarantine vendor ROI multiples (748% / 22:1 / similar) — never quote as typical results
Rule
Rule: Quarantine vendor ROI multiples — including the most-cited "748% SEO ROI" (First Page Sage "748% SEO ROI" — quarantined: agency's own clients, 3-year window (Q1 2021-Q3 2025), proprietary formula, no disclosed sample size, no churn accounting; their own Basic Content Marketing tier is 16%) and "$22 for every $1" ("$22 for every $1 spent on SEO" — effectively unsourced industry folk-statistic; misattributed to SeoProfy (whose page does not contain it), elsewhere pinned to SmartInsights/Backlinko/HubSpot with no traceable primary study) — and any similar figures sourced from SEO agencies, tool vendors, or unsourced industry "common knowledge." Never quote them as typical or expected results.
Why: Vendor figures are computed on the vendor's own continuing clients, exclude churned and failed clients (textbook survivorship + selection bias), and are sold as marketing. The 748% figure is one specific agency's premium-tier internal number; the 22:1 figure has no traceable primary study. Quoting either as a typical result misleads clients and exposes Candid to credibility damage when the actual result lands in the much wider honest range.
How to apply: If a client cites either number ("I read that SEO returns 22-to-1"), respond directly: "That figure circulates a lot but doesn't survive examination — the 22:1 has no traceable source, and the 748% is one agency's premium-tier internal number on their continuing clients, not an industry benchmark. The honest range for a business like yours is 6-24-month payback if it works, with a real probability of never. We'd rather start from that honesty than promise a number we can't back."
Related entries
Referenced by (4)
- reference Research brief: the time dimension of a new website — ramp economics, the J-curve, owned vs rented, and the AI-era verification (June 2026) relates-to
- reference First Page Sage "748% SEO ROI" — quarantined: agency's own clients, 3-year window (Q1 2021-Q3 2025), proprietary formula, no disclosed sample size, no churn accounting; their own Basic Content Marketing tier is 16% relates-to
- reference "$22 for every $1 spent on SEO" — effectively unsourced industry folk-statistic; misattributed to SeoProfy (whose page does not contain it), elsewhere pinned to SmartInsights/Backlinko/HubSpot with no traceable primary study relates-to
- reference Genuine unknowns in ramp economics — unrecorded denominator of failed sites, structural attribution problem, 2026 AI-search discontinuity reducing predictive power of historical models relates-to