Kerr et al. 2023 — VAGUE verbal hedging undermines trust in both number AND source

Claim: Kerr, van der Bles et al. (2023, Royal Society Open Science 10:230604, Study 1 N=10,519) replicated van der Bles 2020 in the COVID-19 context: a numeric range produced at most a SMALL drop in trust in the number and NO drop in trust in the source.

BUT Kerr also found that "imprecise statements about the mere existence of uncertainty without quantification can undermine both trust in the numbers and their source." Vague verbal hedging is corrosive.

Source: Kerr, van der Bles, et al. 2023, Royal Society Open Science. Peer-reviewed replication + extension.

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: This is the most actionable single finding for the widget output. "Based on your answers" / "For situations like yours" is fine; "this is just a rough guess, it could be higher or lower" is forbidden. See Rule — Replace vague hedging with confident conditional framing.