{"id":2070,"slug":"kerr-2023-vague-hedging-corrosive","title":"Kerr et al. 2023 — VAGUE verbal hedging undermines trust in both number AND source","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["uncertainty-communication"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Kerr, van der Bles et al. (2023, *Royal Society Open Science* 10:230604, Study 1 N=10,519) replicated van der Bles 2020 in the COVID-19 context: a numeric range produced at most a SMALL drop in trust in the number and NO drop in trust in the source.\n\n**BUT** Kerr also found that \"imprecise statements about the mere existence of uncertainty without quantification can undermine both trust in the numbers and their source.\" Vague verbal hedging is corrosive.\n\n**Source:** Kerr, van der Bles, et al. 2023, *Royal Society Open Science*. Peer-reviewed replication + extension.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** This is the most actionable single finding for the widget output. \"Based on your answers\" / \"For situations like yours\" is fine; \"this is just a rough guess, it could be higher or lower\" is forbidden. See [[rule-replace-vague-hedging-with-conditional-framing]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-presenting-tiers-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget presentation layer — tiered results without overclaiming (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-replace-vague-hedging-with-conditional-framing","title":"Rule — Replace vague hedging with confident conditional framing","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:03.397Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:03.397Z"}