Gigerenzer/Juslin 1991-1994 — frequency framing reduces overconfidence (with Griffin-Tversky 1992 critique)

Claim: Gigerenzer, Hoffrage & Kleinbölting (1991) and Juslin (1994) showed that representative/ecological item selection and frequency framing can sharply reduce or eliminate measured overconfidence. Asking "how many out of X" produces calibrated answers where "how likely on a 0-100 scale" does not.

Scholarly debate: Critics (Griffin & Tversky 1992) argue the calibration improvement partly confounds item selection with difficulty — the framing effect is real but smaller than the strongest claims suggest.

Source: Gigerenzer, Hoffrage & Kleinbölting 1991; Juslin 1994; Griffin & Tversky 1992 critique. Verified — with documented scholarly debate.

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: Direct widget design implication: ask for frequencies / counts ("how many...?") rather than subjective probabilities ("how likely...?"). This matches R7 — When the owner can read a number off a screen, have them do so and reinforces the observation-over-judgment heuristic (R1 — Convert every judgment into an observation or counting task).