{"id":2133,"slug":"gigerenzer-juslin-frequency-framing-calibration","title":"Gigerenzer/Juslin 1991-1994 — frequency framing reduces overconfidence (with Griffin-Tversky 1992 critique)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["self-report-validity","survey-question-design"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Gigerenzer, Hoffrage & Kleinbölting (1991) and Juslin (1994) showed that **representative/ecological item selection and frequency framing** can sharply reduce or eliminate measured overconfidence. Asking \"how many out of X\" produces calibrated answers where \"how likely on a 0-100 scale\" does not.\n\n**Scholarly debate:** Critics (Griffin & Tversky 1992) argue the calibration improvement partly **confounds item selection with difficulty** — the framing effect is real but smaller than the strongest claims suggest.\n\n**Source:** Gigerenzer, Hoffrage & Kleinbölting 1991; Juslin 1994; Griffin & Tversky 1992 critique. Verified — with documented scholarly debate.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Direct widget design implication: ask for **frequencies / counts** (\"how many...?\") rather than subjective probabilities (\"how likely...?\"). This matches [[rule-r7-read-off-screen-beats-recall]] and reinforces the observation-over-judgment heuristic ([[rule-r1-convert-judgment-to-observation]]).","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"rule-r1-convert-judgment-to-observation","title":"R1 — Convert every judgment into an observation or counting task","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-r7-read-off-screen-beats-recall","title":"R7 — When the owner can read a number off a screen, have them do so","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.038Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.038Z"}