Expectation-disconfirmation theory — Oliver (1977, 1980); 2024 meta-analysis (150 records, N=58,597) confirmed positive expectation-satisfaction relationship (r≈.29) with no support for contrast effects
Summary
Claim: Satisfaction is the gap between prior expectation and perceived performance. When a high (vendor-inflated) expectation meets a slow normal ramp, the negative disconfirmation registers as dissatisfaction and is interpreted as failure — even when the underlying performance is on-trajectory.
A 2024 Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science meta-analysis of 150 records and N=58,597 confirmed a positive expectation-satisfaction relationship (r≈.29) and found no evidence supporting contrast effects.
Source: Oliver, R. L. (1977). "Effect of expectation and disconfirmation on postexposure product evaluations." Journal of Applied Psychology 62(4):480–486; Oliver (1980). Journal of Marketing Research 17(4):460–469; meta-analysis in Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science (2024).
Confidence: Industry-consensus/Verified. Dominant paradigm for 40+ years; well-supported by recent meta-analysis.
Caveat: Direction of effect depends on assimilation vs. contrast processes. The mechanism is robust; the magnitude of the felt gap depends on how inflated the original anchor was — which is why vendor over-promising is so corrosive.
Related entries
Related
- reference Loss aversion — Kahneman & Tversky (1979) prospect theory; REPLICATION-FLAGGED: Gal & Rucker (2018) challenged universal 2:1 claim; Walasek/Mullett/Stewart meta-analytic re-examinations find coefficient ≈1.3 (or near 1 under symmetric conditions); Kahneman conceded "not a law of human nature"
- rule Rule: separate "feels like failure" from "is failing" — treat early disappointment as an expectation-disconfirmation artifact FIRST; check against base rates, not against the vendor's promise
Referenced by (4)
- reference Research brief: the psychology of the launch-and-wait — owner patience and visitor first impressions on a brand-new website (June 2026) relates-to
- reference Owner-side mechanism inventory — eight cognitive mechanisms that make a normal new-site ramp feel like failure (anchoring, expectation-disconfirmation, action bias, illusion of control, sunk cost, loss aversion, hyperbolic discounting, availability) relates-to
- reference Anchoring — Tversky & Kahneman (1974), Science: the first number/claim heard becomes a reference point subsequent judgments insufficiently adjust away from; operates even with arbitrary, known-irrelevant anchors relates-to
- reference Availability heuristic — Tversky & Kahneman (1973): judging probability by how easily examples come to mind; a vivid prior failed venture makes "this will fail too" feel more probable than base rates warrant relates-to