{"id":1993,"slug":"cooper-woo-dunkelberg-1988-entrepreneur-optimism","title":"Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg 1988 — 81% of entrepreneurs see odds 7/10+; 33% see 10/10","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg (1988, *Journal of Business Venturing* 3:97-108) surveyed **2,994 entrepreneurs** and found:\n\n- \"They perceived their prospects as very favorable, with **81% seeing odds of 7 out of 10 or better** and a remarkable **33% seeing odds of success of 10 out of 10**.\"\n- They rated their own odds higher \"than other new business owners with similar ideas.\"\n- Notably: \"**those who were poorly prepared seemed just as optimistic as those who were well prepared**\" — even though roughly half or more of new firms do not survive their first several years.\n\n**Source:** Cooper, Woo & Dunkelberg 1988 JBV. Primary survey, n=2,994.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** This is not a small effect. The bias magnitude is large enough that an unweighted self-rating widget would systematically misclassify owners. Output tiers, not scores, and lean on observation ([[rule-r5-output-tiers-not-scores]]).","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.898Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.898Z"}