Ahrefs (863k keywords / 4M URLs) — page-1 overlap with AI Overview citations dropped from 76% (Jul 2025) to 38% in 2026

reference · Scope: business · Status: current

Created 2026-06-21

Summary

Claim: A parallel Ahrefs study (863k keywords / 4M URLs) puts the page-1 overlap with AI Overview citations at 38%, down from 76% in July 2025.

Source: ahrefs.com — 2026.

Confidence: Industry-consensus (consistent direction with BrightEdge and Moz).

Caveat: Ahrefs is a vendor; large-N keyword sample is internal.

Why this matters for Candid: The trajectory (76% → 38% in 6–7 months) is the more important finding than either single level. The two systems are diverging fast, not converging.

Related entries

reference BrightEdge — only ~17% of sources cited in AI Overviews also rank in Google's organic top 10; ~5 of 6 AIO citations are NOT on page 1

Referenced by (2)

reference Research brief: the website as a working surface of the business — four capabilities, AI-citation decoupling, freshness as a real signal (June 2026) · relates-to
rule R5 — Decouple from Google rank as sole success metric; AI citation, AI-Mode mentions, and direct-traffic / branded search now matter independently · depends-on