Pena-Marin et al. 2019 — precise estimates BACKFIRE when shown wrong

Claim: Pena-Marin et al. (2019, Journal of Consumer Psychology 29(4)) found that when an estimate proves incorrect, an IMPRECISE estimate yields higher source trustworthiness and consumer loyalty than a PRECISE one — even when the imprecise estimate was objectively further off.

Source: Pena-Marin, Adaval, Burson 2019, Journal of Consumer Psychology. Single-source.

Confidence: Single-source (no exact replication located).

Why this matters for Candid: This is the core precision-vs-honesty tension: false precision BUYS short-term credibility but CREATES long-term liability if reality diverges. Because no defensible benchmark for "digital-minus-ads" spend exists (sister brief Research brief: SMB widget spend benchmarks — feasibility of a "digital-minus-ads" % of revenue (June 2026)), any hard number the widget emits is precision the reality will diverge from. A defined, anchored tier is the honest and durable choice — and costs nothing in source trust per van der Bles et al. 2020 PNAS — numeric uncertainty ranges do NOT damage trust in the source.