Mueller (May 2021) explicitly REJECTS both "sandbox" and "honeymoon" framings — "not the case that we're explicitly trying to promote new content or demote new content. It's just, we don't know and we have to make assumptions"

Summary

Claim: In the same May 2021 SEO office hours, Mueller explicitly rejects both a deliberate sandbox and a deliberate honeymoon:

"In the SEO world this is sometimes called kind of like a sandbox where Google is like keeping things back to prevent new pages from showing up, which is not the case. Or some people call it like the honeymoon period where new content comes out and Google really loves it and tries to promote it. And it's again not the case that we're explicitly trying to promote new content or demote new content. It's just, we don't know and we have to make assumptions."

Source: John Mueller (Google), SEO office hours, May 2021.

Confidence: High.

Caveat: The observed volatility ("ranks great for two weeks then tanks," or vice versa) is real. The causal story attached to it (a sandbox timer or a honeymoon bonus) is the disputed part. See 2024 Google Content Warehouse leak — documents public on GitHub March 27–May 7, 2024; surfaced by Erfan Azimi; analyzed by Rand Fishkin and Mike King; Google confirmed authenticity but cautioned against "out-of-context, outdated, or incomplete information" for the one narrow point on which the leak partially vindicated skeptics.