BDC modeled projection — "if all Canadian SMEs reached very high digital maturity, productivity could rise ~38pct, GDP ~14pct, ~$350B" (DS, modeled not realised)

Claim. BDC has published a modelled projection that if all Canadian SMEs reached a very high level of digital maturity, SME productivity could rise by nearly 38pct, contributing a 14pct increase in Canadian GDP, or roughly $350 billion.

Source. BDC media room and supporting materials, recirculated via b2bnn.com (June 2026).

Confidence. Directional-self-report. Modelled counterfactual projection, not realised result. Use only with explicit "modelled projection" labelling.

Caveats. Counterfactual is unrecoverable: "if all SMEs reached very high maturity" is a scenario, not a measurable outcome. The model's assumptions about how productivity scales with maturity are not publicly documented in the secondary reporting.

Implication / use. Useful as a framing figure for the magnitude of the unrealised upside — but never as evidence the upside will be realised. Always label "modelled projection" inline.