Factor 3 — SERP feature crowding (AI Overviews, ads, packs) — a market-wide difficulty multiplier

Claim: SERP features (AI Overviews, ads, map packs, etc.) consume most of the clickable real estate, INDEPENDENT of any specific competitor strength. Difficulty has risen structurally for everyone.

Headline numbers:

• 58.5% of US Google searches (59.7% in EU) ended without ANY click in 2024 — SparkToro/Datos analysis (Rand Fishkin). For every 1,000 US searches, only ~360 clicks reach the open web. See SparkToro/Datos 2024 — 58.5% US / 59.7% EU Google searches end with zero click.
• 2026 follow-up (Similarweb panel): US zero-click rose to ~68%.
• AI Overviews sharply reduce traditional-result clicks. Pew Research Center (non-vendor) — KnowledgePanel Digital browsing of 900 US adults, 68,879 unique Google searches (March 2025): when an AI summary appeared, users clicked a traditional result in just 8% of visits vs 15% without — nearly half. Clicking a link INSIDE the summary occurred in just 1%. Sessions ended after 26% of AI-summary pages vs 16% without. ~18% of searches produced an AIO. See Pew Research 2025 — AI Overviews roughly halve traditional clicks (non-vendor).
• AI Overviews are LAYERING ON TOP of ads, not replacing them. Semrush/Datos: Google Ads now appear at the bottom of ~25% of AI-Overview SERPs (up from <1% in March 2025) — organic gets squeezed by AIO + ads simultaneously.
• On commercial queries, a four-pack of top ads can push organic results entirely below the fold.

Implication for the widget: Query intent determines feature load. Informational queries are most exposed to AI Overviews; commercial to ads; local to map packs. A market where the money queries are commercial or informational-with-AIO is structurally harder regardless of how weak the named competitors are.