Google/SOASTA 2017 — P(bounce) rises 32% at 1s→3s, 123% at 1s→10s

Claim: Google/SOASTA 2017 (deep neural net, 90% prediction accuracy): probability of bounce rises 32% as load goes 1s→3s, 90% at 1s→5s, 123% at 1s→10s.

Google-published, A/B-controlled partner cases (web.dev): Rakuten 24 — +53.37% revenue/visitor and +33.13% conversion from LCP optimization in an A/B test; Vodafone Italy — +8% sales from a 31% LCP improvement.

Source: Google/SOASTA 2017; web.dev partner cases. Credible but self-selected (winners).

Confidence: Verified.

Why this matters for Candid: One of only three causal datapoints in the whole tier-mapping research. Page-speed → conversion is real. But note: speed → RANKING is overstated; see Google — page experience NOT a separate ranking system; CWVs don't guarantee rankings.