Ahrefs — of pages that DO reach top 10, ~40.8% did so within 1 month (early momentum matters)

Claim: Of the small minority of new pages that DO reach Google's top 10 within their first year (Ahrefs May 2025 — only 1.74% of newly published pages reach top 10 within a year (vendor)), ~40.8% did so within the first month — implying early momentum matters.

Source: Ahrefs (vendor — SEO SaaS).

Caveat: Vendor. Survivorship-biased — only the 1.74% of winners are in this denominator. Quarantined as directional.

Confidence: Single-source / Directional.

Why this matters for Candid: A page that hasn't moved in 3-6 months is unlikely to break through later. The widget's "time-to-traction" expectations should mirror this — for content/SEO work, the first month is the strongest signal of whether a page has any chance.