{"id":1170,"slug":"trust-networks-brief-research-gaps-may-2026","title":"Research gaps and source caveats — trust / referral networks / in-group reputation brief (May 2026 Brief #3)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["psychology-aversion","social-network-theory","referral-mechanics","signalling-theory"],"reference_body":"**Where this brief's claims stand on weaker empirical ground.** Label claims accordingly when used in Candid content.\n\n1. **No replicated study of referral-conversion rates in Canadian residential construction.** [[schmitt-skiera-van-den-bulte-2011-16pct-ltv-premium]] is banking; [[trusov-bucklin-pauwels-2009-wom-elasticity-053]] is an online social network. Cross-domain direction holds; magnitudes do not transfer at face value. APB SORCI 2024 ([[apb-sorci-2024-48-7pct-referrals-half-of-sales]]) gives in-domain volume but not conversion rates by tie strength.\n\n2. **No published independent study of BTA / EOS / Vistage / TAB outcomes in Canadian trades.** Outcome figures from [[bta-contractor-growth-method-600-contractors]], [[eos-worldwide-scale-200k-businesses-800-1000-implementers]], [[vistage-tab-generalist-peer-advisory-not-trades-specific]] are organization-reported. Treat as marketing claims, not as evidence.\n\n3. **The \"peer-coached contractor\" persona is a synthesis, not an empirically validated segmentation.** [[peer-coached-contractor-persona-synthesis]] should be read as a directional hypothesis worth field-testing in Candid's own sales-conversation data, not as a measured construct.\n\n4. **The credence-good frame is imported from healthcare, auto-repair, and durable-goods literatures.** [[darby-karni-1973-credence-goods-framework]], [[marketing-services-as-credence-good-for-gc]], [[dulleck-kerschbamer-sutter-2011-liability-verifiability-credence-goods]]. Applicability to \"marketing services for trades businesses\" is plausible and theory-consistent, but in-domain published work is thin. We are extrapolating.\n\n5. **The Granovetter / Burt / Levin-Cross framework is US-derived.** Canadian trades may differ (smaller market, more concentrated supplier base, statutory warranty structure with no US analogue). Cross-domain mapping flagged in [[burt-structural-holes-1992-2004-broker-advantage]] and [[brokers-in-ontario-trades-three-roles]].\n\n6. **APB SORCI 2024 referral data and Brief #1's 48.7% figure** ([[apb-sorci-2024-48-7pct-referrals-half-of-sales]]) have not been independently re-derived in this brief. Taken as established within the Candid evidence base.\n\n7. **The Reddit / WhatsApp / Signal / Facebook-group digital infrastructure is rapidly evolving.** Layer 5 of [[ontario-trades-info-ecosystem-five-layer]]. Any specific claim about volume or composition should be revisited within 12 months.\n\n8. **No Ontario-specific data on what percentage of HCRA-licensed builders also hold Gold Seal, RenoMark, or Guildmaster designations.** Cross-tabulating these stacks would meaningfully sharpen the persona work — high-value future research project.\n\n9. **No data on Candid's own referral mix by tie strength.** Building this dataset internally is recommended. If 80% of Candid's high-LTV clients arrive via strong-tie referrals ([[warm-intro-hierarchy-eight-levels-ontario-trades]] levels 6-8), that should be governing budget allocation now, not after the next year of media spend.\n\n10. **GuildQuality's annual proportion-of-members-winning rate is not publicly disclosed.** [[guildmaster-guildquality-audit-verified-survey-signal]]. Winner list is published; denominator is not, so \"what fraction of GuildQuality members are Guildmasters\" cannot be computed from public data.","rationale_body":"Honest catalog of where Brief #3's claims stand on weaker empirical ground, and the high-value internal research projects that would sharpen the persona / network / signalling work. Building the in-house referral-by-tie-strength dataset is the single highest-leverage gap to close.","metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-trust-networks-in-group-reputation-may-2026","title":"Research brief: trust, referral networks, and in-group reputation in Ontario's trades economy (May 2026 — Foundation Brief #3)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-05-25T13:34:11.283Z","updated_at":"2026-05-25T13:34:11.283Z"}