{"id":1142,"slug":"trusov-bucklin-pauwels-2009-wom-elasticity-053","title":"Trusov, Bucklin, Pauwels 2009 (JoM) — WOM elasticity on signups ≈ 0.53, roughly 20× marketing-events elasticity, 30× media-appearance elasticity","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["psychology-aversion","referral-mechanics"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Trusov, Bucklin, and Pauwels (2009), \"Effects of Word-of-Mouth versus Traditional Marketing: Findings from an Internet Social Networking Site,\" found:\n\n- **WOM elasticity on signups ≈ 0.53**\n- **~20× elasticity of marketing events**\n- **~30× elasticity of media appearances**\n- WOM carryover was substantially longer than paid-marketing carryover\n\n**Source:** Trusov, M., Bucklin, R. E., & Pauwels, K. (2009). *Journal of Marketing* 73(5), 90–102.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified (single-firm, online social network). Magnitude is **not** portable to construction at face value; **directional** finding (WOM has higher amplitude + longer carryover than paid) has been replicated across multiple settings.\n\n**For Candid:** The point is not \"WOM is 20× better than events in trades\" — that figure is from an online-signup context. The point is that **WOM and paid marketing operate on different decay curves**: paid is high-decay, requires continuous spend; WOM is low-decay, compounds. In a buying cycle where decisions are made every 3-7 years (trades), low-decay channels dominate over time.\n\n**Related:** [[apb-sorci-2024-48-7pct-referrals-half-of-sales]] gives the in-domain referral-volume anchor (48.7% of residential builders source >50% of sales from referrals).","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-trust-networks-in-group-reputation-may-2026","title":"Research brief: trust, referral networks, and in-group reputation in Ontario's trades economy (May 2026 — Foundation Brief #3)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-05-25T13:34:11.153Z","updated_at":"2026-05-25T13:34:11.153Z"}