{"id":234,"slug":"ten-year-cost-model-rebuild-vs-foundation","title":"Reference framework: 10-year cost model — rebuild-every-3-years vs foundation-first (Canadian SMB, CAD)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","claude-code","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["agency-methodology","longevity-architecture"],"reference_body":"**10-year cost projection for a typical Kitchener-Waterloo SMB site** (~20-40 pages, professional services or local commerce, CAD). Ranges are wide because the work is wide.\n\n**Scenario A — Rebuild every 3 years on typical agency platform stack:**\n- Year 0 initial build (WP + page builder): $8k-$18k\n- Hosting + plugins + 5 hr/mo support, years 0-3: ~$8.5k\n- Year 3 **full rebuild**: $10k-$25k\n- Years 4-6 maintenance + Year 6 second rebuild: ~$37k-$55k\n- Years 7-9 + Year 9 third rebuild: ~$39k-$60k\n- Year 10 residual: ~$10k\n- **Total: ~$115k-$185k CAD**\n\n**Scenario B — Foundation-first, maintained continuously:**\n- Year 0 initial build (semantic HTML + headless/lean CMS): $18k-$35k\n- 10 years hosting (cloud/CDN): ~$3.5k total\n- 10 years minimal plugin licenses: ~$2k total\n- 10 years continuous retainer (~10-15 hr/mo @ $140/hr): ~$200k\n- Year 5 significant refresh: $8k-$15k\n- **Total: ~$235k-$260k CAD**\n\n**Reading the model honestly:**\n- Naïve dollar total is HIGHER for Scenario B — but misleading without including (a) the opportunity cost of 3× 523-day SEO recovery curves ([[sej-892-migrations-523-day-recovery]]) and (b) lost lead value during rebuilds\n- Scenario A loads ~3× 523 days of degraded organic traffic + a **17% probability per rebuild that traffic never recovers**\n- Scenario B benefits from compounding domain age, citation graph, structured-data depth — none of which appear as line items but determine cost-per-lead by year 5\n- For SMBs doing $1M+ revenue with non-trivial lead value, Scenario B's payoff is on the order of 1 rebuild avoided over 10 years; for sub-$250k micro-businesses, the math is closer to neutral\n\n**Gaps:** Ontario retainer pricing not well-publicized (extrapolated from CSP/2Marketing/Databending ranges); plugin licensing inflation held flat (likely too generous); doesn't account for breach response (Verizon median ransom: US$115k — see [[verizon-dbir-2025-88pct-smb-ransomware]]).","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"sej-892-migrations-523-day-recovery","title":"Search Engine Journal (Jan 2025): 523-day average recovery from domain migration (n=892); 17% never recover by 1,000 days","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"verizon-dbir-2025-88pct-smb-ransomware","title":"Verizon DBIR 2025: 88% of SMB breaches involved ransomware vs 39% of enterprise; median ransom $115k","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"orbit-media-website-lifespan-2y4mo-vs-6y4mo","title":"Orbit Media: average website lifespan across Inc 5000 is 2y4mo; under continuous care, 6y4mo","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"rule-build-for-10-year-horizon","title":"RULE: Design every Candid client site for a 10-year operational horizon. Rebuild is a choice, not a forced move.","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"research-brief-built-to-last","title":"Research brief: Built to Last — why most SMB sites rebuild every 3-4 years (piece 5 of 15)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"candid-page-builder-roadmap-stages-1-4","title":"Candid Creative page-builder transition roadmap: 4 stages over 12 months","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"smb-5k-vs-20k-build-decision-framework","title":"$5K WordPress refresh vs $20K custom build — performance alone does not justify the $15K delta","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-05-22T19:58:12.886Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T19:58:12.886Z"}