{"id":1995,"slug":"svenson-1981-driver-above-median","title":"Svenson 1981 — 93% of US drivers rated themselves above the median for skill","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Svenson (1981) found **~93% of US drivers** rated themselves above the median for skill. Alicke et al. (1995) and many replications confirm the robustness of the \"better-than-average effect\" — and crucially, the effect **shrinks when comparison targets are concrete rather than abstract**.\n\n**Source:** Svenson 1981; Alicke et al. 1995. Foundational.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** The \"concrete-target moderation\" is directly actionable. Instead of asking \"how do you compare to your competitors?\" (abstract — strong inflation), point the owner at a NAMED competitor's GBP and ask them to compare review counts ([[rule-r3-concrete-named-competitors]]).","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-r3-concrete-named-competitors","title":"R3 — Where comparison is unavoidable, use a concrete NAMED competitor target","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"cannot-rate-competitive-comparison-abstract","title":"CANNOT — \"How do you compare to your competitors?\" (abstract → max overplacement)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.911Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.911Z"}