{"id":1975,"slug":"survivorship-bias-central-threat-diy-evidence","title":"Survivorship bias is the central, recurring threat in DIY-builder evidence — vendor stats and active-site surveys both exclude failures","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["page-builders","editorial-discipline","data-gaps"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Every vendor retention statistic and every active-site survey in the DIY-builder category systematically **excludes never-launched and abandoned sites** by construction. Wix's F-1 ([[wix-f1-many-users-never-publish-quote-2014]]) explicitly admits the platform does not measure publishing or engagement.\n\n**Source:** Methodological synthesis across the brief.\n\n**Confidence:** This is a structural observation about the available evidence, not a metric.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Any retention number ≥80% from a builder vendor measures retention **among survivors**, not retention **of started accounts**. The denominator gap is the most important thing to remember when reading any vendor or aggregator statistic in this category. Cross-link [[rule-r2-quarantine-vendor-retention-survivor-only]].","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-diy-page-builder-effectiveness-longevity-june-2026","title":"Research brief: effectiveness and longevity of DIY / page-builder websites for SMBs (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"godaddy-fy2025-retention-85-percent-quarantined","title":"GoDaddy FY2025 10-K — ~85% customer retention (84% in 2024 due to divestitures); 90% for >3-year cohort","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"wix-fy2025-nrr-105-percent-nrr-vs-logo","title":"Wix FY2025 net revenue retention 105% (Q4 earnings call) — NRR is not logo retention","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-r2-quarantine-vendor-retention-survivor-only","title":"R2 — Treat every vendor retention number as survivor-only and quarantine it","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.386Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.386Z"}