{"id":672,"slug":"stats-not-supported-by-evidence","title":"Speed/conversion stats commonly cited but NOT supported by primary evidence in 2026 — Candid will not quote these","kind":"rule","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["editorial-discipline","citation-practices","conversion-rate"],"reference_body":"**Rule:** Do not quote these statistics in sales conversations or marketing copy:\n\n1. **\"A 1-second delay reduces conversions by 7% across all sites.\"** Traces to Akamai/SOASTA 2017 retail data ([[akamai-soasta-2017-100ms-7pct-mobile]]). Defensible as a retail e-commerce benchmark from 2017, not a universal law. For a KW lawyer or HVAC contractor, this specific elasticity has not been demonstrated.\n\n2. **\"Amazon loses 1% revenue per 100ms of latency.\"** Reportedly Amazon internal research ~2006 (Greg Linden). No public methodology, ~20 years old, Amazon-scale operations.\n\n3. **\"Core Web Vitals doubled in ranking importance\"** / **\"Google made CWV twice as important.\"** Cited by some marketing blogs but **not in any Google primary statement**. Google has consistently described CWV as one of many page-experience signals, tiebreaker class. See [[cwv-tiebreaker-not-major-ranking-factor]].\n\n4. **\"53% of mobile users abandon in 3 seconds\" applied to 2026 baselines.** Original study (Google/DoubleClick/SOASTA, 2016) is nearly a decade old. Networks, devices and tolerance baselines have shifted. Quote it as historical context, not a current 2026 number.\n\n5. **\"Faster site = better AI Overview citation rate.\"** No defensible primary research supports this as of May 2026. The one direct analysis ([[dan-taylor-cwv-ai-citation-gate-not-signal-2026]]) found the opposite of what an SEO marketer would assume.\n\n6. **Agency \"case studies\" claiming \"redesign → +40% conversions\" as performance wins.** A redesign confounds content, layout, CTA copy, navigation, trust signals, and performance. Cannot attribute the lift to speed without an isolated A/B test. Reject these.\n\n7. **Conversion-rate elasticity for \"professional services\" specifically.** No major isolated study (Deloitte, Akamai, web.dev cases, Portent, Contentsquare) breaks out elasticity for lawyers, accountants, dentists or consultants in a defensible way. Extrapolate cautiously from Deloitte lead-gen and Portent B2B — but flag as \"general B2B,\" not \"professional services-specific.\"\n\n**Why this rule exists:** Candid Creative's sales conversations are won on credibility. A quoted stat that doesn't survive scrutiny loses the room. See [[research-brief-confidence-sources-dated-claims]] (existing) for the broader sourcing discipline.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-confidence-sources-dated-claims","title":"Research brief: Confidence Levels, Sources, and Dated Claims — why every statement on a credible site should be verifiable (piece 15 of 15)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-performance-revenue-evidence","title":"Research brief: Website Performance & Revenue — defensible evidence for KW small-business owners (piece 17)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"akamai-soasta-2017-100ms-7pct-mobile","title":"Akamai/SOASTA (2017, ~10B visits): 100ms delay = -2.4% desktop / -7.1% smartphone conversions; 2s delay = -36.5% desktop / -26.2% mobile","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"ai-search-citation-direct-evidence-thin-2026","title":"AI search citation likelihood — direct evidence is thin; indirect evidence (overlap with organic top 10) is moderate. Speed is not a known direct lever.","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-05-22T21:24:18.373Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T21:24:18.373Z"}