{"id":2017,"slug":"rule-r6-easy-market-override-with-counts","title":"R6 — In easy-looking markets, override owner optimism with observed counts","kind":"rule","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence","observable-proxies-for-judgment"],"reference_body":"**Rule:** When the widget detects an apparent low-competition vertical (e.g., low CPC, weak SERP, sparse local pack), weight observed counts HEAVILY and discount any owner optimism in input or output.\n\n**Why:** This is where overplacement is greatest ([[easy-market-overplacement-asymmetry-moore-cain-2007]], [[cain-moore-haran-2015-overplacement-drives-entry]]). Owners in easy-looking markets believe they outperform competitors they have not actually assessed. The widget's competitor-counting tasks ([[live-serp-counting-task]]) are the protection — but only if the algorithm WEIGHTS them, not just collects them.\n\n**How to apply:** In the tier computation, when commercial intensity / saturation signals say \"easy market,\" REDUCE the weight of any owner self-ratings (if any survive R1) and INCREASE the weight of observation counts.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"cain-moore-haran-2015-overplacement-drives-entry","title":"Cain, Moore & Haran 2015 — OVERPLACEMENT (not absolute confidence) drives entry; easy markets pull entrants in","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"easy-market-overplacement-asymmetry-moore-cain-2007","title":"Moore & Cain 2007 — overplacement is GREATEST on easy tasks/markets","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:01.078Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:01.078Z"}