{"id":1980,"slug":"rule-r4-decompose-dead-site-via-bls-survival","title":"R4 — Use BLS business-survival data to decompose \"dead site\" causes — many are dead businesses, not platform failure","kind":"rule","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["page-builders","longevity-architecture","editorial-discipline"],"reference_body":"**Rule:** When reasoning about \"site death\" rates, first decompose by **business survival** using [[bls-establishment-survival-49-6-percent-five-year]]. Roughly half of any SMB cohort is gone by year 5 regardless of platform.\n\n**Why:** Attributing all dead sites to platform failure overstates the platform's role. The honest baseline is that ~50% of underlying businesses are gone by year 5 — any platform-attributable death rate sits on top of that floor.\n\n**How to apply:** In comparing platforms, the relevant question is \"what is the *excess* site-death rate beyond what BLS business-survival predicts?\" — not \"what fraction of sites die?\"","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-diy-page-builder-effectiveness-longevity-june-2026","title":"Research brief: effectiveness and longevity of DIY / page-builder websites for SMBs (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"bls-establishment-survival-49-6-percent-five-year","title":"BLS Business Employment Dynamics — ~20–22% of US establishments fail Y1; ~49.6% five-year survival; ~65% failed by Y10","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.412Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T12:08:39.412Z"}