{"id":622,"slug":"nyt-link-half-life-15-years-13pct-content-drift","title":"Link rot: NYT external links 1996-2019 show ~15-year half-life; 13% of \"live\" links no longer point to original content","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["claude-code","candid-team"],"topics":["longevity-architecture","citation-practices"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** A 2021 study of New York Times external links from **1996-2019** found a **~15-year half-life** of working links, with **13% of \"live\" links no longer pointing to original content** (content drift, not just 404s).\n\n**Source:** Wikipedia synthesis citing 2021 NYT-link study — <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Link_rot>\n\n**Confidence:** Industry-consensus.\n\n**Companion: Zittrain et al. (Harvard Law Review 2014)** — see [[zittrain-reference-rot-supreme-court-2014]] — 50% of US Supreme Court opinion links + 70% of Harvard Law Review links no longer functional. Older study, larger numbers, similar direction.\n\n**The empirical assumption for Candid sourcing:** any web citation has a **meaningful probability of breaking within 5 years.** The defense is not \"don't cite the web\" — it's **capture + quote**:\n\n- Capture an archive snapshot at citation time (archive.org Save Page Now, Perma.cc)\n- Prefer persistent identifiers: DOIs, ISBNs, government document numbers, regulatory filing IDs\n- **Quote the source verbatim, don't just link** — a ≤25-word direct quote in the citation means the claim survives link death and can be searched in archives. **Highest-leverage practice.**\n- Quarterly automated link-checker; quarterly manual spot-check of high-importance citations\n- Date every citation (\"as of May 2026\" / \"retrieved May 2026\")\n\nSee [[link-rot-mitigation-9-step-plan]] for the full operational procedure.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"zittrain-reference-rot-supreme-court-2014","title":"Zittrain et al. (Harvard Law 2014): 50% of URLs in U.S. Supreme Court opinions suffer reference rot","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"citation-pattern-library-8-patterns-2026","title":"CANDID REFERENCE: 8-pattern citation library — inline links, hover footnotes, end-of-section, archive pairs, schema","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"link-rot-mitigation-9-step-plan","title":"CANDID REFERENCE: 9-step link-rot mitigation plan — archive on capture, verbatim quote, persistent IDs, quarterly check","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"rule-capture-archive-snapshot-at-citation-time","title":"RULE: Capture an archive snapshot (Perma.cc / archive.org) at the moment of citing any web source. Quote verbatim.","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"research-brief-confidence-sources-dated-claims","title":"Research brief: Confidence Levels, Sources, and Dated Claims — why every statement on a credible site should be verifiable (piece 15 of 15)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-05-22T20:51:27.000Z","updated_at":"2026-05-22T20:51:27.000Z"}