{"id":2132,"slug":"lichtenstein-1977-hard-easy-effect","title":"Lichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips 1977 — the hard-easy effect","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["self-report-validity","entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Lichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips (1977; reviewed 1982) established the **hard-easy effect** — overconfidence INCREASES as task difficulty increases. People are overconfident on hard items and can be UNDERconfident on easy ones.\n\n**Source:** Lichtenstein, Fischhoff & Phillips 1977 (reviewed 1982). Foundational calibration literature.\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Aligns with the Moore & Healy 2008 taxonomy ([[moore-healy-2008-overconfidence-taxonomy]]) — on EASY markets the entrepreneur OVERPLACES (vs others); on HARD ones they are OVERCONFIDENT in absolute terms. Both patterns predict that owner self-ratings will be systematically biased — in opposite directions depending on perceived market difficulty.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"moore-healy-2008-overconfidence-taxonomy","title":"Moore & Healy 2008 — the three forms of overconfidence (estimate / place / precision)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.014Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T20:03:31.014Z"}