{"id":1474,"slug":"jpal-agarwal-2019-india-mobile-social-default-prediction","title":"J-PAL Agarwal et al. 2019 India — mobile / social-footprint ML predicts loan defaults more effectively than credit-only models","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","smb-owner","candid-team"],"topics":["information-asymmetry","alternative-data-scoring"],"reference_body":"**Claim.** Agarwal et al. (2019) India RCT-evidence study found that mobile-phone and social-graph footprint signals fed into ML models predict loan defaults *more effectively* than models restricted to traditional credit scores.\n\n**Quote.**\n> \"Predict loan defaults more effectively than models that only use credit scores.\"\n\n**Source.** Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), summary of Agarwal et al. (2019) India fintech-lending study, povertyactionlab.org (accessed 2026-06-21).\n\n**Confidence.** Verified. J-PAL is a methodologically conservative research organisation; default-rate prediction is a clean outcome measure.\n\n**Caveats.** India context, with mobile / social-graph data availability that may differ from Canadian privacy regime ([[reference-candid-kb-content-pattern]]); replicate the *mechanism* claim, not the data inputs, for Canadian application.\n\n**Implication / use.** Third leg of the alt-data credit evidence stack (with NBER and IFC). The convergence across three independent literatures — primary academic, multilateral, RCT-tradition — is what makes the risk-domain claim materially harder to wave away than the retention magnitudes.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"research-brief-information-asymmetry-decision-edge-june-2026","title":"Research notes (capture-layer): the affirmative, inward decision-edge case for data intelligence — information asymmetry applied to pricing, demand, risk, retention, targeting (June 2026)","kind":"research-notes","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"},{"slug":"nber-wp-29840-invisible-primes-fintech-altdata-2022","title":"NBER WP 29840 (Di Maggio, Ratnadiwakara, Carmichael, 2022) — \"Invisible Primes: Fintech Lending with Alternative Data\"","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[]},"created_at":"2026-06-21T01:14:48.767Z","updated_at":"2026-06-21T01:14:48.767Z"}