{"id":1992,"slug":"easy-market-overplacement-asymmetry-moore-cain-2007","title":"Moore & Cain 2007 — overplacement is GREATEST on easy tasks/markets","kind":"reference","scope":"business","status":"current","audiences":["kevin","candid-team"],"topics":["entrepreneurial-overconfidence"],"reference_body":"**Claim:** Moore & Cain (2007, *Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes*) — on EASY tasks/markets, **overplacement is greatest**, so entrants flood in believing they will beat competition they have not actually assessed.\n\n**Source:** Moore & Cain 2007 OBHDP. Corroborated by [[cain-moore-haran-2015-overplacement-drives-entry]].\n\n**Confidence:** Verified.\n\n**Why this matters for Candid:** Concrete widget implication — when the diagnostic detects a perceived-easy market (sparse SERP features, low CPC, low entrenchment), it must DISCOUNT any owner optimism and weight observed competitor data heavily.","rationale_body":null,"metadata":null,"links":{"outgoing":[{"slug":"cain-moore-haran-2015-overplacement-drives-entry","title":"Cain, Moore & Haran 2015 — OVERPLACEMENT (not absolute confidence) drives entry; easy markets pull entrants in","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"}],"incoming":[{"slug":"research-brief-smb-widget-capture-layer-june-2026","title":"Research brief: SMB widget capture layer — what owners can vs cannot self-report (June 2026)","kind":"reference","scope":"business","link_type":"relates-to"},{"slug":"rule-r6-easy-market-override-with-counts","title":"R6 — In easy-looking markets, override owner optimism with observed counts","kind":"rule","scope":"business","link_type":"depends-on"}]},"created_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.892Z","updated_at":"2026-06-23T19:16:00.892Z"}